March 2, 2026
A major new study conducted by ICES McMaster for Provincial Geriatrics Leadership Ontario (PGLO) warns that Ontario is on course to face severe and widening shortages of geriatric-focused physicians as the province’s older adult population grows rapidly and becomes increasingly complex.
The study, The Supply and Activity of Physicians Providing Specialized and Focused Clinical Services to Older Adults in Ontario, examined more than a decade of health system data (2011–2023) and projected needs through 2048. It is the first Ontario-wide analysis to forecast health human resources based on actual service utilization, rather than physician headcounts.
Aging population + rising complexity = surging demand
Ontario’s population aged 65+ grew from 1.9 million in 2011 to 2.9 million in 2023, with the number expected to surpass 3 million within the next five years. Although most older adults fall into a “low disease burden” group, the number of older adults living with high levels of medical complexity, including conditions such as dementia, frailty or seniors’ mental health concerns, or approaching end-of-life, continues to climb.
Older adults living with these concerns rely heavily on geriatric specialists, including:
- Geriatricians
- Geriatric Psychiatrists (defined in this study as either a subspecialist trained in geriatrics or a general psychiatrist who practices in a full- or part-time capacity in Seniors Mental Health)
- Care of the Elderly (COE) family physicians
Workforce growth is not keeping pace
Between 2011 and 2023:
- Geriatricians nearly doubled (100 → 196)
- Geriatric psychiatrists more than doubled (111 → 229)
- COE family physicians increased fivefold (31 → 169)
Despite this growth, demand is outstripping supply as the older adult population expands.
Key Findings
- Demand will far exceed supply by 2048.
- Required FTE geriatricians will rise from ~174 to 490
- Required FTE geriatric psychiatrists will rise from ~176 to 340
- Required FTE COE family physicians will rise from ~126 to 314
- Younger physicians consistently contribute fewer clinical FTEs, raising long‑term sustainability concerns.
- Geriatric-focused physicians are delivering dramatically more care, including major increases in virtual, home-based, and hospital-based services.
- Long-term care remains under-served, even as resident needs rise.
Implications for Ontario’s Health System
Without intervention, Ontario will face worsening access challenges, particularly for the oldest and most complex patients.
The report highlights the urgent need for:
- Expanded postgraduate training in geriatric medicine, geriatric psychiatry, and COE
- Incentives to attract and retain clinicians with expertise in aging
- Integrated, team-based community models to reduce reliance on hospital-based care
- Needs‑based health workforce planning guided by service utilization, not physician headcounts
A Call to Action
“This report underscores what providers across the province are experiencing every day,” said Dr. Kelly Kay, Executive Director of PGLO and knowledge user for the study. “Ontario’s system is at a tipping point, with growing numbers of older adults living with dementia, frailty and seniors’ mental health concerns. Without targeted action to strengthen the geriatric-focused workforce, through targeted strategies such as expanded post-graduate training, strengthening pathways into focused practice models and associated incentives, and investments in interdisciplinary, community-based care models, we risk failing the very people who rely most on our health system.”
About the Study
The study is an Applied Health Research Question (AHRQ) conducted by ICES McMaster in partnership with McMaster University, Western University, Ontario Shores Centre for Mental Health Sciences, Behavioural Supports Ontario, and other collaborators. The analysis draws on multiple provincial datasets to assess trends and produce 25-year projections.
Download the full report below
Report citation:
Correia RH, Premranjith P, Borrie M, Heckman G, Elliott J, Rahim A, Aelick K, Siu H Y-H, Jones A, Costa AP, Perez R, Kay K. (March 2, 2026). The Supply and Activity of Physicians Providing Specialized and Focused Clinical Services to Older Adults in Ontario. Research report prepared for Provincial Geriatrics Leadership Ontario.