Provincial Geriatrics Leadership Ontario (PGLO) has released updated estimates of the prevalence of frailty among older adults in Ontario, with projections extending to the year 2051. Ontario will experience growth in the number of older adults living with frailty by 72%, from over 776,300 in 2026 to more than 1.3 million in 2051.
These estimates are presented at the census division level and summarized by Ontario Health Region to support provincial, regional, and local planning for health services for older adults living with complex and chronic health concerns.
The newly released Excel workbook provides estimates of the number and proportion of older adults living with frailty across Ontario’s 49 census divisions, using the most recent population projections from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Estimates are calculated using a validated, population‑based frailty index and age‑specific prevalence rates, with a full description of methods included in the workbook.
Supporting planning and service design
These updated frailty estimates are intended to facilitate a stronger understanding of anticipated need for services that support older adults with complex health needs. They may be used on their own or in combination with other planning tools, including PGLO’s Provincial Asset Inventory, to compare anticipated demand with current service availability and utilization.
In addition, these estimates can inform initiatives focused on:
- Health system and workforce planning
- Integrated and community‑based care design
- Allocation of clinical and program resources
- Regional and municipal aging strategies
Further guidance for service design can be found in PGLO’s report, Design Elements of Integrated Care for Older Adults Living with Complex and Chronic Health Needs (see Related Resources).
Access the frailty estimates
The full Excel workbook is now available for download here.
The workbook includes historical estimates, projections to 2051, and methodological documentation to support transparency and reproducibility.
Questions or feedback
Questions, or to report errors or omissions, please contact: info@geriatricsontario.ca